Moving from recession to recovery: What can we really expect?
www.RickStrohm.com
Rick & Rick Strohm, Jr.
Here are the facts:
-- NABE 2010 Consensus. Over 80% of NABE's forecast panel believes that
the "Great Recession" has ended and that the economy is now in the
early stages of a recovery. Growth is forecast to increase at an
average rate of 3% in 2010.
-- Employment is not expected to exceed previous highs until 2012 or
later.
-- Inflation is expected to remain tame through the end of 2010,
inhibited by excessively high unemployment and a large amount of
slack.
-- The dollar is expected to further soften, but not lose its status as a
reserve currency.
-- Corporate profits are expected to bounce back and the NABE group is
uniformly optimistic that the broader stock indices will continue to
rally.
-- The availability of credit (or lack thereof) remains the primary risk
to the outlook in the near-term.
-- Concerns span the spectrum from a secondary round of credit tightening
associated with the sharp rise in unemployment and accompanying
defaults, to the losses that banks will have to absorb as commercial
construction crashes.
We have come a long way from where we were a year ago...and we still have more to go, but the time to "buy" is now. If you have more questions just email me.
Rick, Jr.